Amid the Great Recession of 2008-9, global trade collapsed by 15 percent. Decomposing the role of supply chains, trade in autos and other durable goods, inventory adjustments, trade finance, protectionism, the shock to demand, and even the exchange rate movements, may help us understand how the trade collapse of 2020 evolves, as well as the prospects for a V-shaped recovery.
Read more…
- Soumaya Keynes. 2020. If you thought the trade war was bad for global commerce… The Economist, 26 March.
- George Alessandria, Joseph P. Kaboski, and Virgiliu Midrigan. 2011. US Trade and Inventory Dynamics. American Economic Review.
- Mary Amiti and David Weinstein. 2011. Exports and financial shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics.
- Irena Asmundson, Thomas Dorsey, Armine Khachatryan, Iona Niculcea, and Mika Saito. 2011. Trade finance in the 2008–2009 financial crisis: evidence from IMF and BAFT-IFSA surveys of banks. In Trade Finance During the Great Trade Collapse, Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Mariem Malouche (eds.) Washington, DC: World Bank.
- Richard Baldwin (ed.) 2009. The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences, and Prospects. London, UK: CEPR.
- Richard Baldwin and Simon Evenett (eds.) 2009. The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis: Recommendations for the G20. London, UK: CEPR.
- Rudolfs Bems, Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu Yi. 2013. The Great Trade Collapse. Annual Review of Economics.
- Ingo Borchert and Aaditya Mattoo. 2010. The crisis-resilience of services trade. The Services Industry Journal.
- Chad P. Bown. (ed.) 2011. The Great Recession and Import Protection: The Role of Temporary Trade Barriers. Washington, DC: World Bank
- Chad P. Bown and Meredith A. Crowley. 2013. Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: evidence from the Great Recession. Journal of International Economics.
- Natalie Chen and Luciana Juvenal. 2018. Quality and the Great Trade Collapse. Journal of Development Economics.
- Davin Chor and Kalina Manova. 2012. Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis. Journal of International Economics.
- Jonathan Eaton, Samuel Kortum, Brent Neiman and John Romalis. 2016. Trade and the global recession. American Economic Review.
- Gita Gopinath, Oleg Itskhoki and Brent Neiman. 2012. Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008–09. IMF Economic Review.
- Hiau Looi Kee, Cristina Neagu and Alessandro Nicita. 2013. Is Protectionism on the Rise? Assessing National Trade Policies during the Crisis of 2008. The Review of Economics and Statistics.
- Andrei A. Levchenko, Logan T. Lewis and Linda L. Tesar. 2010. The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun. IMF Economic Review.
